LibraryScenariosHow economists handle the persistent failure of monetary policy forecasting
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How economists handle the persistent failure of monetary policy forecasting

My econometric models predicted none of the major financial crises in my thirty-year career, but I keep building more sophisticated versions of the same models because that is what the job requires.

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More people experience this than they realize.

What we've seen

The institutional demand for predictive models persists despite their repeated failures, creating ongoing professional cognitive dissonance.

Ideas that help explain it
Worth thinking about

“Where Are You with Central banks and monetary policy?”

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