How do I tell market signal from noise?

You can analyze the market now, but the hardest part still trips you: telling the real signal from the endless noise. That difficulty is not a gap in your ability. It is the central problem of the whole craft, the one that humbles veterans with decades in. If separating signal from noise were easy, everyone would be right, and no one is right for long. The honest truth is that much of what looks like signal is noise wearing a convincing costume. Markets throw off patterns constantly, and the human mind is built to see meaning in randomness whether it is there or not. The skill is less about spotting more signals and more about doubting them harder, asking whether a pattern is real or just a story you want to believe. Humility is the edge here, not cleverness. So before you act on the next thing that looks like signal, force yourself to argue the other side: what would have to be true for this to be noise? If you cannot answer, you do not understand it well enough to trust it yet. Learning to distrust your own certainty is slow, unglamorous work, and it is exactly what separates the analyst who lasts from the one who was just lucky for a while.