Talk it through with Aurelius
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Aurelius · Work & Leadership
Knowledge + Guidance

Why do I sandbag or oversell my forecasts instead of telling the truth?

Here is what is happening. Someone asks you for a number. You do not give them your honest estimate. You give them a number chosen to manage their reaction, or yours. Low enough to beat easily. High enough to look strong. Either way, you have stopped forecasting and started performing. This is not a skill gap. You said yourself you can forecast okay. This is a nerve gap. You do not yet trust the team with your real number, and you do not yet trust yourself to be wrong in public without it costing you something. But your pod cannot plan around a performance. They can only plan around the truth. Every padded or inflated number you hand them is a small tax on their decisions, paid later, usually at the worst time.

◆ How this problem reads on the two dials
GuidanceKnowledge
More coaching
A little to learn
1:1 with AureliusWith others (a Pod)
Some one-to-one
Practise with peers
The person already knows how to forecast; the work here is mostly behavioral — choosing honesty over self-protection in front of others.
How the two dials adapt to you →
What’s really going on

You are not forecasting. You are managing how you will look when the forecast lands. Sandbagging protects you from blame. Overpromising protects you from looking weak. Both serve your reputation, not the work. Choose to report what you actually believe, state how sure you are, and let the team plan on that.

🔒 What you’ll build togetherUnlock by starting
A moveNext forecast, say the number and your confidence level out loud, together — not just '80 units,' but '80 units, and I'd put real money on 70-90.'
A moveBefore you speak, ask yourself: is this number what I believe, or what I want them to think of me? Answer out loud if you have to.
A moveWith your pod, track calibration, not just outcomes. Did your 70% calls land about 70% of the time? That matters more than any single miss.
A moveAgree as a group on what gets rewarded: accuracy, not optimism and not caution. Say this plainly in the room, not just in a document.
A moveWhen you catch yourself softening a number for comfort, say the real one anyway. Do it once this week, even if it is uncomfortable.
PractiseCalibration Circle · a Pod of 4 · 30 min

What changes unlock by starting

  • Your forecasts become something the team actually plans around, because they stop needing to discount them
  • You stop carrying two numbers in your head — the real one and the one you say out loud
  • The pod catches problems earlier, because the data they get is honest instead of managed
  • You feel less tension before every forecast, because there is only one number to defend

Related problems

One object, two jobs: a public answer to a real problem, and — the moment you start the chat — Aurelius’s live plan for your version of it.