LibraryScenariosHow small wins create dangerous confidence
Scenario

How small wins create dangerous confidence

I won a small amount gambling last month and now I can't stop thinking about going back to try to win more, even though I know it's stupid.

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More people experience this than they realize.

What we've seen

Success can be more dangerous than failure when it teaches us the wrong lessons about probability.

Ideas that help explain it
Worth thinking about

“Where Are You with Risk-taking — philosophy and psychology?”

If this sounds familiar, the Library can help you find the bigger picture.