Talk it through with Aurelius
When every estimate is wrong and no one trusts the timeline
Every estimate is wrong, so leadership pads them, so teams sandbag to protect themselves, so leadership pads more — and now no one trusts any timeline the org produces. Planning has become a negotiation between two sides who both assume the other is lying.
◆ How this problem reads on the two dials
GuidanceKnowledge
1:1 with AureliusWith others (a Pod)
A trust-and-estimation problem, worked together. Mostly the craft of estimates-vs-commitments and honest ranges (knowledge); a little on rebuilding trust (guidance).
How the two dials adapt to you →What’s really going on
The estimation death-spiral isn't a skill problem — it's a trust problem dressed as a math problem. Once padding and sandbagging start, every estimate is a move in a game, not an honest guess, and accuracy becomes impossible because no one's trying for it. We break the spiral: separate estimates from commitments, make it safe to be uncertain, and rebuild the trust that lets a number mean what it says.
🔒 What you’ll build togetherUnlock by starting
KnowledgeThe estimation death-spiral
KnowledgeEstimates vs commitments
KnowledgeMaking uncertainty safe to say
A moveName the padding/sandbagging cycle out loud — both sides admit their move.
A moveAgree to express estimates as honest ranges, and stop treating an estimate as a commitment.
PractiseHonest numbers · a Pod of 6 · 45 min
What changes unlock by starting
- Estimates stop being a negotiation and start being honest.
- You separate an estimate from a commitment.
- Uncertainty can be said without punishment.
- Timelines start meaning something again.
One object, two jobs: a public answer to a real problem, and — the moment you start the chat — Aurelius’s live plan for your version of it.